"Gaps always fill." "Tight stops protect you." "A 94% win rate means it works." I tested what every Nasdaq futures trader believes on 1.8 million one-minute bars. Most of it is wrong.
Each myth gets the numbers behind it and what I actually do instead. A few of them:
There's opportunity all day long.FALSE
Just trade the opening range breakout.HALF TRUE
Gaps always fill.HALF TRUE
You can't know what kind of day it'll be.FALSE
Tight stops protect you.FALSE
A 94% win rate means it works.FALSE
I bought NQ at 20,000 random minutes. No setup, no skill. A 10-point stop got touched within 30 minutes 78% of the time. On today's NQ, a tight stop doesn't measure your idea. It measures the noise.
Know before the open whether NQ is set up for a big day or a small one, and size your stops and targets to match.
The checklist every strategy has to pass. The FVG and the 94% IFVG both failed by step 5.
How it works, what it expects to lose, and how to watch it trade live, in public, before you trust it.
I bought what I was sure had fallen enough. It kept falling. Years later I built a backtest that made 42% a year, and it turned out to be a data bug. Since then I don't trust a number until I've counted it myself. That's what TestedNQ is: popular strategies, coded rule by rule, run on five years of NQ with real costs. Most of them don't survive. I show you why.
Don't trust my numbers. Read how they were made, then watch the live record build before you decide anything.